Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
